304L манталитетът на пазара на безшевни тръби от неръждаема стомана е мечи, futures fluctuate and decline

Stimulated by news from various parties, the market price of 304L stainless steel seamless pipe showed a trend of high before and low after March. The steel plant adjusted the monthly production schedule based on the profits of various varieties, и тръбната заготовка основно завърши производствения график през март, но действителното производство на горещо валцувани тръбни заготовки не беше идеално. Тази статия отнема 9 стоманодобивни заводи на север и 4 стоманодобивни заводи на юг като проби, анализира причините, поради които действителното производство на тръбни заготовки през март не отговаря на планираното производство в началото на месеца от три аспекта: цени на тръбни заготовки, общ договорен обем, държан от стоманодобивните заводи, и търсене надолу по веригата, и прогнозира производството на тръбни заготовки при 304L stainless steel seamless pipe мелници през април.

1. The overall price rose first and then fell. 304Л stainless steel seamless pipe factory’s profits continued to shrink

In the first half of March, under the favorable policies of the National People’s Congress and the expectation of the peak demand season for the “Golden Third”, the outlook showed a fluctuating upward trend. However, the prices of raw materials such as coal coke and ore remained high, and the profitability of steel mills was not optimistic. The demand fulfillment in the second half of the month did not meet expectations, and Silicon Valley Bank, the second largest bank in the United States, experienced a thunderstorm. At the same time, the Federal Reserve maintained a pace of interest rate hikes, and the 304L stainless steel seamless pipe market mentality was relatively empty. Futures fluctuated and fell. Although Premier Li Qiang stated that he would introduce new policies to promote stable and positive economic development, the actual demand has not kept up with the pace, and the price of pipe blanks has risen weakly. The price of raw materials has also shifted narrow, making it easy for pipe blank prices to fall but difficult to rise, As a result, the profit of the steel plant’s tube billet varieties is poor, and its production capacity is intentionally transferred to other varieties.

2. Although orders are increasing weekly, the growth rate has slowed down compared to last month

At the end of February and the beginning of March, the pace of steel mills receiving orders from 9 sample steel mills in the north was relatively fast. However, by mid to late March, the number of orders received significantly decreased. At the same time, the delivery speed of steel mills accelerated, and the number of contracts held by sample steel mills continued to decrease, indirectly indicating that the price of steel mills receiving orders was gradually decreasing. However, steel mills have reported that the orders for continuous casting tube billets in March were basically saturated, but the orders for hot rolled tube billets were not good. Some steel mills did not have sufficient orders in March, and on the one hand, they had short-term maintenance operations in March; On the other hand, steel mills convert it to other products to ensure production and profitability. The production of tube billets from the four sample steel mills in the south is not high, so almost all of them have completed their monthly plans.

3. Downstream operating rates are normally high, but there is still a strong demand for pipe blanks

The 304L stainless steel seamless pipe factory, as the main force in demand for pipe billets, purchased more continuous casting pipe billets in March than hot rolling pipe billets, indirectly indicating a low willingness of short process hot rolling pipe factories to replenish inventory. I believe there are two main reasons: firstly, the price is high, and the pipe factory is bearish, playing a game with the steel factory and cautiously replenishing inventory; The second reason is that the utilization rate of operating capacity is not high, resulting in a decrease in the demand for pipe blanks. As of March 31, инвентара на безшевни тръбни заготовки в 21 фабриките за проба на безшевни тръби в Шандонг достигнаха 401700 тона, което е на нормално високо ниво. However, работната скорост остава на умерено високо ниво на 65.6%, така че все още има голямо търсене на тръбни заготовки.

в обобщение, има признаци на свиване както в пространството за печалба, така и в търсенето надолу по веригата 304L stainless steel seamless pipe фабрични тръбни заготовки. Очаква се общото планирано производство на тръбни заготовки от 13 примерни предприятия през април ще бъдат наоколо 950000 тона.