Leverandør av rustfritt stål, Wenzhou Kaixin, Kina
Market dynamics of raw materials
Billets: In the market, downstream stainless steel pipe enterprises purchase billets at low prices and replenish the stock. The direct delivery of steel billets is smooth, and the stock shows a downward trend for 7 consecutive days. Futures were adjusted by green shocks, traders’ mentality weakened, and trading was limited. In terms of downstream finished materials, the mainstream price was lowered, and the overall transaction was weak. At present, Tangshan has launched a Class II emergency response to heavy pollution weather (the lifting time is to be determined), and some downstream stainless steel pipe enterprises are facing production suspension and restriction, and the demand for steel billets is reduced. It is expected that Tangshan steel billets will operate in a weak and stable manner tomorrow.
Iron ore: In the process of environmental protection and production restriction in Tangshan, the futures market plunged, most of the ore processing industry stopped production, and the quotation was firm, but the stainless steel pipe factory had a heavy wait-and-see attitude, and the enthusiasm to inquire for goods was weakened, and the overall trading sentiment was general.
Scrap steel: the price of scrap steel in Tangshan is stable and weak. The steel mill’s profit is small, and the purchase of scrap steel is still based on demand. Because it is difficult to trade the finished products, the manufacturers with a large number of goods will take advantage of the trend to suppress the price of scrap steel, but the deep decline may not be large, and it is expected to be weak in the short term.
Coke: Some coke enterprises in Shanxi continued to raise the price for the first round at the weekend, and the mainstream steel mills have not responded yet. At present, coke enterprises have smooth shipments and low inventory in the factory. Affected by profit suppression and environmental protection factors, coke enterprises are not willing to increase production. Recently, the price of coking coal has been rising, and the cost side support is strong. Most coking enterprises are still confident about the first round of coke price increase. The consumption of finished products has gradually warmed up, and the enthusiasm of stainless steel pipe factory for production has continued to rise. The output of molten iron is high, and there is a certain demand for coke. It is expected that the short-term coke market will operate stably and moderately.
Overview of transaction of finished products
In the market, the futures market fluctuated at a low level, the wait-and-see mood of the stainless steel tube spot rose, the high level resources fell, and the intraday trading performance was weak. The East China region is stable and strong, and the futures market is fluctuating downward. The East China market is mostly for replenishment. Many traders are mainly stabilizing their shipments, and the cost is high. Although the stainless steel pipe factory has a strong willingness to increase prices, the overall shipments of traders are under pressure, and replenishment is prudent.
The market of stainless steel tubes is broken:
The decline from the two-and-a-half month high is bound to record the largest weekly decline against major currencies since mid-January. Gold prices climbed to a two-week high on Friday and will rise for the first time in five weeks, as the decline in the yields of the US dollar and US government bonds provides some breathing opportunities for the gold market, which is depressed by the prospect of further interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve. Oil prices recovered from a short sell-off on Friday and closed up more than $1. The weekly price also rose, benefiting from the new optimism surrounding the demand of the largest oil importer.
The overall performance of iron ore and black plate was relatively strong last week. In terms of supply, overseas shipments and imports to the port have decreased seasonally, but in terms of the current level of inventory at the port, the supply side has not shown too prominent contradictions; In terms of demand, the supply and demand of downstream finished products are still improving. With the resumption of production of more construction projects and the increasingly active transaction of building materials, the market still has high expectations for the demand support of steel mills in the later stage. In general, for iron ore, the support of industrial fundamentals and macro-level is strong at present. With the end of the two sessions, the market still has high expectations for the power of the policy side, and the demand is expected to be strong in the short term or still, but the regulatory and regulatory risks should not be underestimated. It is expected that ferrous metals will still maintain a high and volatile trend.
Interpretation of macro hot spots
[The expected rise of the Federal Reserve’s terminal interest rate falls back]
As the yield of US Treasuries rose and fell, US equities temporarily got rid of the haze of February last week, and the strong economic data temporarily eased the market’s concerns about inflation and interest rates. Samtidig, the position of the Federal Reserve officials on monetary policy has been divided, and the target pricing of the terminal interest rate of the Federal Fund Interest Rate Futures has gradually stabilized, while the expectation of raising the interest rate by 50 basis points in March is also falling. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will attend the hearings of the Senate and House Finance Committee this week to testify on the semi-annual monetary policy report.
Analysis: The recent performance of economic data has intensified the expectation of further tightening of the tightening policy. The market will pay attention to Powell’s statement on key issues such as economy and inflation, and look for more clues to the policy path.
[The power supply in Yunnan is restricted again, and the capacity of some enterprises is reduced by 40%]
After the “double control of energy consumption” in 2021 and the power rationing and shutdown in 2022, the power rationing news came out again in Yunnan, a major hydropower province. This is also the third round of large-scale power rationing in Yunnan after the two rounds of power rationing in September 2022. Since September 2022, the power limit has continued. The first round of voltage limit has reduced the capacity by 10%, and the second round has reached 20%. This time, the operating capacity has been further reduced to 40%.
Some production in Yunnan has been shut down according to local requirements, and the current operating capacity is only 60% of the total. The power limit in Yunnan is still affected by less local water, and the possibility of other regions following the power limit is not ruled out. At present, there is no timetable for the duration of power rationing, and the industrial capacity involved has been reduced.
[China Internet of Things: China’s commodity index rose from 102.8% in February to the highest level in nearly five months]
On March 5, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing announced that the China Commodity Index (CBMI) in February 2023 was 102.8%, the highest in nearly five months, up 2.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the operating situation of the domestic commodity market began to warm up and the industry’s operating conditions improved.
Prediction of future trend of stainless steel pipe
As the weather warms, the effect of stable growth policy gradually appears, and the demand for terminal procurement shows a warming trend, which is conducive to the further digestion of the social treasury. I tillegg, the cost support is relatively strong, the overall market operating atmosphere is optimistic, and the price of stainless steel tubes is also expected to rise further. However, the profits of stainless steel pipe enterprises have improved, and the enthusiasm for production has also continued to increase. The supply end of stainless steel pipe may show a slight recovery trend in the later stage.