On the last trading day of February, under the influence of inflation expectations in the United States, the futures market continued to weaken, the operating mood of the stainless steel tube spot market was depressed, and the interest rate of the first housing loan hit a new low since 2019. Good news continued in infrastructure, real estate and manufacturing, and the macro policy continued to relax, helping the economic recovery and development. However, major projects needed more time to land, the terminal purchase volume was limited, and merchants were mostly cautious and wait-and-see, What is the price trend of ומבאַפלעקט שטאָל רער in the later stage?
Influencing factors of ומבאַפלעקט שטאָל רער market
China Iron and Steel Association: expected growth rate of infrastructure investment in 2023
From the perspective of demand outlook, it is expected that the growth rate of infrastructure investment will maintain a certain resilience in 2023. Due to the high base of the previous year, the growth rate may decline; The real estate industry will continue to decline and the decline will narrow. The steel in the construction industry will remain flat or slightly decline. It is expected that the demand for steel in the machinery industry will be flat or slightly decreased in 2023, and the production and sales of automobiles are expected to continue to grow. The consumption of steel in the automobile industry will increase by about 3% year on year, and the overall demand for steel in the household appliance industry will increase slightly. It is expected that the demand for steel will be about 14.2 million tons, up about 1% year on year. It is estimated that the consumption of steel will be about 16.5 million tons in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of about 2%.
Credit is expected to continue its strong growth momentum in February
In February, the new credit may reach 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of about 360 billion yuan over the same period last year. The strong growth momentum of loans started in January is expected to continue. The main reason is that the current economy is in the early stage of recovery, and the financing demand of market entities is strong, which can be partly confirmed by the recent rapid rise of deposit certificate interest rate and bill interest rate. On the whole, it is expected that the new scale of social finance will reach about 1.8 trillion yuan in February, with an increase of about 600 billion yuan over the same period last year, thus reversing the year-on-year decrease in social finance in January. In the context of economic recovery, the transmission from broad currency to broad credit is accelerating.
With the release of the property market in February 40, the industry continues to be optimistic about the development of domestic real estate, driving the demand of relevant industries and stimulating residents’ consumption. In addition, the state has focused on the recovery of economic development, and the financial and central bank support has been strengthened, and the emergency problem of stainless steel tube market funds has been gradually alleviated. From the perspective of the new scale of social finance, the market investment is expected to increase, the credit is expected to increase strongly, the project construction demand is gradually started, the demand for ומבאַפלעקט שטאָל רער is expanded, and the steel price trend is favorable.
12 blast furnaces planned to resume production in March
If the production is stopped and resumed according to the current statistics. However, it is expected that the production of molten iron in March will be disturbed by the environmental protection and production restriction. אין קיצער, it is estimated that the blast furnace molten iron output of the steel plant will reach 2.365 million tons/day in March.
After the Spring Festival holiday, many domestic steel enterprises have resumed work and production, and the production of stainless steel tubes has continued to increase. Although the general meeting will be held in March, according to the data over the years, Hebei implements the production restriction measures according to the 30-50% emission reduction ratio, and implements the hierarchical production restriction management for steel enterprises, which has limited impact on the production of stainless steel tubes. In addition, with the price rising, the profits of steel enterprises have rebounded, and the enthusiasm for production has increased, which has impacted the market mentality and suppressed the price rise of stainless steel tubes.
Stainless steel pipe price forecast
The expected data of the Federal Reserve on inflation is not ideal, the international capital investment is expected to decline, the futures are expected to remain green and downward, the operating sentiment of the ומבאַפלעקט שטאָל רער spot market is depressed, and the landing of major projects still needs time to verify. In the short term, the price is in the post-rising callback stage, and it is expected that the stainless steel pipe price will be stable in a downward trend tomorrow.