304l 不锈钢无缝管市场心态趋于偏空, 期货波动和下跌

受各方消息刺激, 的市场价格 304L不锈钢无缝管 呈现出3月前高后低的走势. 钢厂根据各品种利润调整月度生产计划, and the pipe billet basically completed the production schedule in March, but the actual output of hot rolled pipe billet was not ideal. This article takes 9 steel mills in the north and 4 steel mills in the south as samples, analyzes the reasons why the actual production of pipe billets in March did not meet the planned production at the beginning of the month from three aspects: pipe billet prices, total contract volume held by steel mills, and downstream demand, and predicts the production of pipe billets at 304L不锈钢无缝管 mills in April.

1. The overall price rose first and then fell. 304L 不锈钢无缝管 factory’s profits continued to shrink

In the first half of March, under the favorable policies of the National People’s Congress and the expectation of the peak demand season for the “Golden Third”, the outlook showed a fluctuating upward trend. 然而, the prices of raw materials such as coal coke and ore remained high, and the profitability of steel mills was not optimistic. The demand fulfillment in the second half of the month did not meet expectations, 和硅谷银行, 美国第二大银行, 经历了一场雷雨. 同时, 美联储维持加息步伐, 和 304L不锈钢无缝管 市场心态相对空虚. 期货震荡下跌. 尽管李强总理表示将出台新政策促进经济平稳向好发展, 实际需求没有跟上步伐, 管坯价格弱势上涨. 原材料价格也窄幅波动, making it easy for pipe blank prices to fall but difficult to rise, 因此, the profit of the steel plant’s tube billet varieties is poor, and its production capacity is intentionally transferred to other varieties.

2. Although orders are increasing weekly, the growth rate has slowed down compared to last month

At the end of February and the beginning of March, the pace of steel mills receiving orders from 9 sample steel mills in the north was relatively fast. 然而, by mid to late March, the number of orders received significantly decreased. 同时, the delivery speed of steel mills accelerated, and the number of contracts held by sample steel mills continued to decrease, indirectly indicating that the price of steel mills receiving orders was gradually decreasing. 然而, steel mills have reported that the orders for continuous casting tube billets in March were basically saturated, but the orders for hot rolled tube billets were not good. Some steel mills did not have sufficient orders in March, and on the one hand, 他们在三月份进行了短期维护操作; 另一方面, 钢厂将其转化为其他产品以确保产量和盈利能力. 南方四家样本钢厂管坯产量不高, 所以几乎所有人都完成了每月计划.

3. 下游开工率普遍较高, 但管坯需求依然强劲

这 304L不锈钢无缝管 工厂, 成为管坯需求主力, 3月份连铸管坯采购量多于热轧管坯, 间接表明短流程热轧管厂补库存意愿较低. 我相信有两个主要原因: 首先, 价格高, 而管厂则看空, 与钢厂博弈，谨慎补充库存; 第二个原因是运营产能利用率不高, 导致管坯需求减少. 截至三月 31, 无缝管坯库存 21 山东无缝管工厂样品达成 401700 吨, 处于正常的高水平. 然而, 开工率维持在适度较高水平 65.6%, 所以对管坯的需求依然旺盛.

总之, 利润空间和下游需求均出现收缩迹象 304L不锈钢无缝管 工厂管坯. 预计管坯计划总产量 13 4月份样本企业将在 950000 吨.